Public and Private Sector Payroll Jobs: Carter, Reagan, Bush, Clinton, Bush, Obama

By request, here is another update of an earlier post through the August employment report.NOTE: Several readers have asked if I could add a lag to these graphs (obviously a new President has zero impact on employment for the month they are elected). But that would open a debate on the proper length of the… Read More..

Friday: Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

From Justin Lahart at the WSJ: Jobs Report Could Seal the Deal on RatesJ.P. Morgan economist Michael Feroli thinks the Fed will stand pat, leaving its target range on overnight rates at zero-to-0.25%. But an increase of 250,000 jobs coupled with a drop in the unemployment rate to 5.1% or 5% would represent a “pretty… Read More

The Bear Market Everyone Saw Coming

The title lets you know where this article is going. For such a routine correction in the US stock market, the Psych/Sentiment backdrop has gotten way out of whack. Do some analysis on Rydex Bull/Bear fund allocations among investors ... Recent Commentaries |… Read More

Third Quarter GDP Model Inches Up to 1.5% on Auto Strength

The Atlanta Fed third quarter GDPNow Forecast inched up today, primarily based on August motor vehicle sales. The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2015 is 1.5 percent on September 3, up from 1.3 percent on September 1. The nowcast for third-quarter real personal consumption… Read More

Amazon: Dash Buttons, EPS Expansion And Low-Risk/High-Reward Innovation

Summary Amazon is out with a Dash button expansion. I believe this product launch will be helpful to EPS expansion in that it is near-zero capex, should increase volumes, and should also increase ARPU. Amazon might also be able to refine its marketing efforts and/or refine its brand partner marketing efforts. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) is out… Read More

FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declines in Q2

The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q2 today: Commercial banks and savings institutions insured by the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) reported aggregate net income of $ 43.0 billion in the second quarter of 2015, up $ 2.9 billion (7.3 percent) from a year earlier and the highest quarterly income on record. The… Read More

Fed’s Beige Book: Economic Activity Expanded

Fed's Beige Book "Prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston based on information collected on or before August 24, 2015." Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate economic activity continued expanding across most regions and sectors during the reporting period from July to mid-August. Six Districts cited moderate growth while New York, Philadelphia… Read More

Thursday: Trade Deficit, Unemployment Claims, ISM non-mfg

From Matthew Graham at Mortgage News Daily: Mortgage Rates Still Waiting for Bigger NewsMortgage rates were almost flat again today. Most lenders were just a hair higher in costs vs yesterday. The most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote remains 4.0% for top tier scenarios, but 3.875% is still available. Mortgage rates are mostly moving sideways.Thursday:•… Read More

Investigating Consumer Confidence: 3-Month Low? 10-Month Low? Near Record High?

Last week, three different measures of consumer confidence came out:University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Conference Board: Consumer Confidence Level Gallup: Economic Confidence IndexClaim of ImportanceBloomberg states "Consumer sentiment is directly related to the strength of consumer spending."Let's investigate that claim starting with a look at the latest results from each survey.  Consumer Confidence On August 25, the… Read More

Fed Apologist Ritholtz Interviews Fed Apologist McCulley

Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz interviewed Paul McCulley, former chief economist at PIMCO, and often mentioned FOMC candidate on the Fed's performance. The Podcast is over two hours long, so let's just go with Ritholtz's brief summary: McCulley Demands Apology on Behalf of the Fed. McCulley noted those who claimed QE and ZIRP were going to… Read More

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