Damn the Reports, Full Speed Ahead; Recession Overdue; Good Time to Normalize Rates?

Here's one for the I'll believe it when I see it category: Fed Officials say Rate Hike Plan Intact Despite Weak U.S. Data. In separate events in Frankfurt and Detroit, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said U.S. monetary policy might need to be adjusted in light of the… Read More..

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 282,000

The DOL reported:In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 282,000, a decrease of 9,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 291,000. The 4-week moving average was 297,000, a decrease of 7,750 from the previous week's unrevised average of 304,750.There were no special factors impacting this week's… Read More

Why Courage is Key to Trading Success

As we can see from the above chart, which tracks the five-day moving average of VIX versus the SPX for the past three years, important lows in markets have tended to see spikes in short-term implied volatility (credit to Index Indicators for the chart and data below).  Interestingly, if we bought SPX when the five-day… Read More

Tracking the Breadth of Market Strength and Weakness

I thought I would share a continuing work in progress.  This is composite index of all NYSE stocks giving buy vs. sell signals for two different technical systems:  Wilder's Parabolic SAR and Bollinger Bands (raw data from Stock Charts).  The chart above tracks a 10-day moving average of the index.  The index provides a general… Read More

One More Rally (and Then a Huge Drop Expected)

March 25th marked the 8 trading cycle low from the bottom on March 13, the Bradley Siderograph turn. The e-waves and cycles are saying that another even more powerful up move is coming and new highs on the SP500 are in the stars. Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More

Thursday: Unemployment Claims, Kansas City Mfg Survey

Some excerpts from a research piece by Goldman Sachs economist Kris Dawsey: Core Inflation Still Has Room to Fall ... With the PPI and CPI reports already in hand for the month, we think that the core PCE price index—the Fed’s preferred inflation measure—will post an above-trend 0.20% increase in February. ... In light of… Read More

Vehicle Sales Forecasts: Best March since 2005

The automakers will report March vehicle sales on Wednesday, April 1st. Sales in February were at 16.2 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and it appears sales rebounded in March to close to 17.0 million SAAR.  March sales (SA) will probably be the best since 2005.Note:  There were 25 selling days in… Read More

Why Endurance is the Key to Trading Success

There is no characteristic more important to long-term trading success than the ability to weather setbacks and turn them into successes.   It 's not just that successful people endure longer; it's that they gain energy--they derive challenge--from the endurance.Think about this:  losers are motivated by winning.  They need to win to thrive.  When they… Read More

GBPJPY Short-Term Elliott Wave Analysis – March 24, 2015

Preferred Elliott Wave view suggests pair formed a secondary peak @ 181.03 and bounces are now expected to hold below this high for continuation lower. Decline from 181.03 peak is taking the form of a double three or ((w))-((x))-((y)) ... Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More

The Three R’s: Winning Practices of Successful Traders

For this post, I reflected on the traders I've worked with who have been particularly successful and some of their common practices.  Here are three practices that seem to distinguish the best from the rest:1)  Reviewing and Learning - The best performers keep score.  They review their performance--good and bad--and they made dedicated efforts to learn… Read More

Best Practices in Trading: Breaking Your Cycles

The first step in changing any damaging behavior pattern is interrupting it.  When we interrupt a pattern, we necessarily stand apart from that pattern.  We control it and refuse to let it control us.  When our patterns show up during trading--patterns of negative thinking or patterns of poor trading--a surprisingly powerful response is to simply… Read More

ATA Trucking Index declined in February

Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 3.1% in FebruaryAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index decreased 3.1% in February, following a revised gain of 1.3% during the previous month. In February, the index equaled 131.6 (2000=100), the lowest level since September… Read More

Gold: The Tortoise Beats The Hare

On March 20, 2015, global gold price discovery changed. Transparency was introduced to the London gold market, as the new " LBMA Gold Price " was launched. Recent Commentaries | Safehaven.com… Read More