Schedule for Week of December 21st

The key reports this week are November Existing Home Sales on Monday, November Personal Income and Outlays on Tuesday, November New Home Sales on Tuesday, and the third estimate of Q3 GDP also on Tuesday.Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays to All!----- Monday, December 22nd -----8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for November. This… Read More..

ATA Trucking Index increased 3.5% in November

Here is an indicator that I follow on trucking, from the ATA: ATA Truck Tonnage Index Surged 3.5% in NovemberAmerican Trucking Associations’ advanced seasonally adjusted For-Hire Truck Tonnage Index jumped 3.5% in November, following an increase of 0.5% during the previous month. In November, the index equaled 136.8 (2000=100), which was the highest level on… Read More

Tracking Stock Market Dynamics: Demand and Supply

Two of the questions most important to understanding market behavior are:  1)  Who is in the market? and 2) What are they doing?  We need the broad participation of buyers and sellers to move markets, and we want to see if there is a skew in the participation of buyers and sellers.  So, in a… Read More

Freddie Mac: “Mortgage Rates Find New Lows for 2014″

Friday:• At 10:00 AM ET, Regional and State Employment and Unemployment (Monthly) for November 2014• At 11:00 AM, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for December.From Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Find New Lows for 2014 Freddie Mac today released the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey® (PMMS®), showing average fixed mortgage rates falling to… Read More

On Bloomberg Radio’s Taking Stock talking Deep Value with Carol Massar, Jim O’Shaughnessy and Patrick O’Shaughnessy

Earlier today I was on Bloomberg Radio’s Taking Stock with Carol Massar, Jim O’Shaughnessy and Patrick O’Shaughnessy talking about opportunities in global deep value stocks. Here’s the .mp3 of Taking Stock: Buy Deep Value: Why Activist Investors and Other Contrarians Battle for Control of Losing Corporations (hardcover or Kindle, 240 pages, Wiley Finance) from Wiley Finance, Amazon… Read More

Comments on Fed Chair Yellen’s Press Conference

A few key takeaways:• There has been no change in FOMC policy. Replacing "considerable time" with "patient" was because we are moving further in time from the end of QE3 .  The first rate hike will be a "considerable time" from October.• "Patient" means it is unlikely the FOMC will raise rates at the next… Read More

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 289,000

From the DOL reported:In the week ending December 13, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 289,000, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 294,000 to 295,000. The 4-week moving average was 298,750, a decrease of 750 from the previous… Read More

Five Good Questions

Jacob Taylor’s new project, Five Good Questions, launched a few weeks ago. It’s a great concept. Jacob asks authors five good questions about their book and delivers the interview to your inbox every Friday. He’s lined up some very interesting thinkers in finance and investing. The link to my interview, which posted Friday, is below: Sign up to receive Jacob… Read More

AIA: Architecture Billings Index shows slower expansion in November

Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From AIA: Demand Softens, but Outlook for Architecture Billings Index Remains PositiveBuoyed by sustained demand for apartments and condominiums, coupled with state and local governments moving ahead with delayed public projects, the Architecture Billings Index (ABI) has been positive for… Read More

Where Are We Now? And What Does It Mean For The Fed

Via Scotiabank's Guy Haselmann, The current market environment means that prices of securities can move wildly and to previously unforeseen and unexpected levels.   For many, P&L management and financial survival will trump economic valuation.  Capital is flowing quickly in a market place rife with compromised market depth.  It also follows a multi-year period where the… Read More

Three Ways to Achieve Better Trading Results for 2015

The recent post outlined a way of setting goals for the new year based upon a breakdown of key elements of trading process.  Two mistakes that traders can make in such a review are 1)  the comfortable inaction of casually reviewing without taking the next steps of setting concrete goals and steps toward reaching those… Read More

Monday: Industrial Production, NY Fed Mfg Survey, Homebuilder Survey

From the WSJ: Fed Likely to Stare Down Oil-Price DropFalling oil prices are a boost to the U.S. consumer. But lower prices also are putting downward pressure on already low inflation, potentially moving the nation further away from the Fed’s objective of 2% annual increases in consumer prices.If Ms. Yellen and her colleagues put more… Read More